How We Predict
Every verdict on CricVerdict is transparent by design. Here is exactly how the model thinks — and what it deliberately is not.
The four signals
- Team strength rating (60%) — a 0-100 index of long-run quality.
- Recent squad form (40%) — how the named players are performing now.
- Home advantage — a measurable bump for playing at home.
- Format — T20, ODI and Test reward different skills; Tests can be drawn.
From scores to a probability
We combine the signals into one score per side, then convert the gap into a win probability with a standard logistic curve. A bigger gap means higher confidence — but we cap the extremes, because upsets are part of cricket.
What this is not
CricVerdict is analysis, not gambling. We publish no betting odds, tips or stake advice and carry no bookmaker links. The goal is to help you understand a matchup, not to wager on it.
FAQ
Are CricVerdict predictions betting odds or tips?
No. They are analytical win-probability estimates built from public data — team strength, recent form, home advantage and format. We publish no betting odds, no tips and no stake advice, and carry no bookmaker links.
How is the win probability calculated?
We score each team from a long-run strength rating (60%) and recent squad form (40%), add a home-advantage adjustment, then convert the gap between the two sides into a probability using a logistic curve. Test matches reserve probability for a draw.
Why do you cap the extremes?
Cricket is famously unpredictable, so we never show either side as a near-certainty. The model deliberately keeps probabilities away from 0% and 100%.
Where does the data come from?
Live and upcoming scores come from CricketData.org (free tier). Historical and ball-by-ball statistics come from Cricsheet, which is openly licensed. We do not scrape other cricket sites.
Questions about the model? About CricVerdict.